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Susan Wagner's avatar

Since money is the issue, can you explain to us why we are being beseeched for our last dime and many candidates in safe seats are sitting on war chests? https://grassrootsconnector.substack.com/p/conversation-with-jason-paul-and?r=9976n&utm_medium=ios We name names, so I'm curious what you would say to these electeds that could help in these Wisconsin races. Why aren't they dipping into their war chests to help out?

Norm Spier's avatar

I'm just letting people know that there is some critical data on ACA coverage that is being suppressed by Dr. Oz's CMS, that would show the ACA on-exchange coverage losses as they increase month by month.

Thus:

DATA SUPPRESSION OF MONTHLY UPDATES BY CMS ON ACA COVERAGE LOSSES:

Data after February 2026 still has not been released as of right now: 10/6/26 7:15 PM EDT, and is supposed to be here:

https://data.cms.gov/summary-statistics-on-beneficiary-enrollment/health-insurance-marketplace/health-insurance-exchanges-monthly-effectuated-enrollment

The last update of the data was the Feb 2026 enrollment status, which the page indicates was posted on its last update date of 6/26/26.

The page is supposed to be updated with additional data monthly, but the page is unchanged since 6/26/26.

Data for March is now over two months late, April data is now over a month late. May data is also overdue. (June data is also due before the Nov 3, 2026 midterms.)

(The data is expected to show increasing coverage losses, estimated to rise from a loss of 2.6 million people as of Feb 2026, rising gradually, month-by-month, to maybe 5 million by end of year. That loss is from about 22 million people with coverage in 2025.)

For details, I reference you to my own recent post:

https://normspier828307.substack.com/p/dr-ozs-cms-delaying-data-on-aca-coverage

and note that a relevant fact in seeing the data suppression is that the total all-states-combined effectuated enrollment has been released historically by CMS, with at most a 4 month lag, going back to at least the data for July 2024. (CMS may have moved the location to cover their tracks—they took it out of the report where it usually was starting data for Jan 2026! I have links making one able to verify the prior data release in my post.)

Otherwise, if you’re interested in what data and estimates are available—there is some actual data from a few state exchanges going a few months beyond February 2026, there are links to that in my post, including to a nice compilation of whatever state-exchange data after February is available, done by Charles Gaba.

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NOT JUST SUPRESSING DATA. WILD DECEPTIONS IN THE PAST YEAR OVER THE CUTS:

2) REMINDER OF OTHER SIGNIFICANT DECEPTIONS ON THE HEALTH CARE CUTS OF LAST YEAR:

I do wish to remind people that the current suppression of data by Dr. Oz and his CMS on the effects of the healthcare cuts of last year is not in a vacuum, but rather is accompanied by a record of serious deceptions.

a) At the end of last year, there was the Republican "talking point" that "the Democrats shut down the government to provide healthcare to illegal aliens", which was false.

I have explored the J.D. Vance contribution here:

https://substack.com/@normspier828307/note/c-345622385

and more broadly picked up cases of the deception, including from Mike Johnson, here:

https://normspier828307.substack.com/p/exploring-the-mass-deception-and

if anyone is interested.

b) Dr. Oz, besides his role in suppressing the current several months of ACA data as head of CMS, has significant deceptions himself on his record. I have some cases here:

https://substack.com/@normspier828307/note/c-345618573

including one which had the normally-mild-mannered data and policy analyst Charles Gaba opine ""PRACTICALLY EVERY WORD HE UTTERS IN THIS RESPONSE IS UTTER HORSES**T."

c) PARAGON HEALTH INSTITUTE—I’VE GOT MY DOUBTS AND SO DO OTHERS:

Many of the stories around widespread ACA fraud (with the terminology "phantom" and "ghost" enrollees) emanate from the "Paragon Health Institute" and its Dr. Brian Blase.

Dr. Blase and Paragon have long been associated with fraud findings on the ACA. which I take to be substantially a propaganda effort to discredit the ACA, and justify the taking it backward that has already happened, and further destruction of it.

I caught multiple organizations questioning the analysis skills of "Paragon" around the fraud allegations, as on this page:

https://normspier828307.substack.com/p/who-are-the-economic-advisors-who-5ef

I also caught another thing from Paragon, which is a graph that John Thune indicated showed the reason the Republicans could not extend the ACA expanded subsidies at the end of last year.

It's a graph labelled: "Obamacare Plan Premums Have Increased Nearly 2X Faster Than Employer-Based Plan Premiums Since 2014".

And the thing is, I'm pretty sure the graph has two major errors, or was prepared intentionally to deceive.

(When I tried to compensate for those errors, I got the ACA plan tracked on the graph--the benchmark silver plan--increasing either slightly less or slightly more than employer based plans. Not "nearly 2X faster"!)

I discussed that here, including the assertions about the error, and the case of Thune using it: https://normspier828307.substack.com/p/senate-republican-leader-john-thune

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